Mountain Weather Forecast

An amplifying ridge of high pressure will deflect weather systems to the northwest and cause them to weaken as their low centres brush Haida Gwaii. Light to moderate precipitation will stretch from Bella Coola northwards through the Northwest Coastal ranges with freezing levels peaking between 1500-1700m Saturday afternoon through Sunday for areas such as Shames. The weakening low on Saturday will spread light precipitation onto Vancouver Island during the day and reach the Northwest Inland ranges and Northern Rockies by Saturday night. To the southeast, dry conditions prevail through mid next week.

With precipitation at a minimum this weekend, all eyes are on rising alpine temperatures. Strong southerly flow bringing warm air up from the Baja Peninsula will gradually weaken over the coming days but not before positive temperatures flood the alpine. Warm air streaming in aloft will create a temperature inversion (temperatures that increase with height) across the province and a prominent warm nose (above freezing layer also known as an AFL). Look for temperatures reaching 2 to 5 degrees Celsius depending on your elevation! The top of the AFL (height at which temperatures drop back below freezing) will reach 2500m for the south coast and up into the Cariboos, while regions closer to the source of the warm air (namely Kootenay-Boundary, Purcells, South Rockies and Lizard ranges) will peak closer to 3000m.

As is typical with mid-winter temperature inversions, expect low-level cloud to be problematic for valleys with large, open lakes.

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The 500mb animation shows the upper ridge building northwestwards from Idaho and keeping much of the province dry through early next week. The exception to that is in the northwest where weak and dissipating weather systems, denoted by kinks in the geopotential height contours, will be deflected. Most precipitation will fall on Northwest Coastal ranges, with very little making it into the northern interior. The strengthening ridge will also cause the next Pacific frontal system to stretch with half curling up into Alaska and the other half diving south into California on Sunday. Warm alpine temperatures and low-level cloud persist through early next week.

A clash of weather systems arrives late next week as an Arctic ridge of high pressure brings cold air down from the north, and a low pressure system moves up from the southwest. Stay tuned for the return of cold air, strong winds and snow in the long range!